U.S. auto sales were expected to end September on a five-month run of increased new vehicle sales as the industry continues to show flickering signs of a COVID-19 recovery.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) was expected to tick as high as 15.5 million for the month, a slight but marked improvement over the 15.2 million figures for August, according to Cox Automotive.
Meanwhile, sales volume is expected to slide by a slight 0.3% compared to 2019, with researchers noting the most recent year had had two additional selling days and a Labor Day weekend compared to September 2019.
"Available Inventory is far below last year's levels, yet sales continue to show surprising strength,” said Charlie Chesbrough, a senior Cox economist. “Going into the fourth quarter, the key question is: Can this continue? Clearly new vehicle buyers haven't been hit as hard as other consumers during this recession, so demand is likely to remain stable over the near-term."
As the fourth quarter rolls on, some in the industry have expressed concern about a lack of new product due to the model year roll-over delay. Experts note there are only a dwindling number of model year 2021 vehicles currently on the market, with some pegging the overall new inventory at just 3% or around eight times less than in 2020.
In addition, new light-vehicle sales for this year are predicted to fall by some1.275 million units, down 0.3% compared to September 2019. When compared to last month, sales are expected to decrease by 50,000 units, or nearly 3.7%.
Finally, the SAAR in September 2020 is expected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15.5 million, a steep decrease from last year's 17.1 million level, but an uptick compared to last month’s sales pace of around 15.2 million.
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