Edmunds has projected that 1,588,185 new vehicles were sold in the country in March, with a forecasted seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million.
The projection reflected a 25.3 percent growth in sales from February 2019, but a comparative 4 percent drop from March 2018. The first quarter sales of 2019 is expected to be 3 percent lower than the same period last year, which is about 122,000 units lesser.
“We can now confidently say new vehicle sales are past their peak; the question now is what the new normal will be,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis. “With new vehicle prices continuing to rise, interest rates sustaining post-recession highs and leasing growing increasingly expensive, pressure on the market is mounting.”
The car shopping experts further noted that the auto industry could see a considerable decline in sales compared with the preceding year if the rest of 2019 sales continue to decrease at the same it did in its first three months.
“It's still early in the year, so there could be some surprises,” Acevedo continued. “If inventory gets out of hand, it's possible that automakers will react by pumping up incentives, which could give sales a bit of a boost. But with the possibility of an economic downturn and potential tariffs looming, it seems certain new vehicle sales are settling into a slower pace.”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Sales Volume | March 2019 Forecast | March 2018 | February 2019 | Change from March 2018 | Change from February 2019 |
| GM* | 271,388 | 296,341 | 208,000 | -8.4% | 30.5% |
| Ford* | 229,221 | 243,021 | 185,000 | -5.7% | 23.9% |
| Toyota | 217,012 | 222,782 | 172,748 | -2.6% | 25.6% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 199,748 | 216,063 | 162,036 | -7.6% | 23.3% |
| Honda | 142,191 | 142,392 | 115,139 | -0.1% | 23.5% |
| Nissan | 140,169 | 162,535 | 114,342 | -13.8% | 22.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 113,876 | 112,185 | 90,546 | 1.5% | 25.8% |
| VW/Audi | 51,574 | 52,638 | 39,266 | -2.0% | 31.3% |
| Tesla | 22,062 | - | - | - | - |
| Industry | 1,588,185 | 1,654,398 | 1,268,008 | -4.0% | 25.3% |
*GM & Ford sales totals for February 2019 are estimated
**NOTE: March 2019 had 27 selling days, March 2018 had 28 and February 2019 had 24.
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | March 2019 Forecast | March 2018 | February 2019 | Change from March 2018 | Change from February 2019 |
| GM* | 17.1% | 17.9% | 16.4% | -0.8% | 0.7% |
| Ford* | 14.4% | 14.7% | 14.6% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Toyota | 13.7% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 12.6% | 13.1% | 12.8% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Honda | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Nissan | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | -1.0% | -0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| VW/Audi | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Tesla | 1.4% | - | - | - | - |
Alerts Sign-up