J.D. Power and LMC Automotive project that new-vehicle retail sales in September dropped by about 15.2 percent compared to the same month last year as retail sales are estimated to reach only 1,007,000 units.
Subsequently, new-vehicle retail sales in the third quarter are estimated to be at 3,622,500, flat compared to the same quarter in 2018. Moreover, total sales for September 2019 are expected to be 13.3 percent lower compared to September 2018. With the decrease, the expected total sales is translated to reach 1,244,000 units.
The forecast for new-vehicle total sales in Q3 is expected to reach 4,280,000 units, flat compared with Q3 2018.
"After delivering record sales results in August, when retail sales rose 6.2 percent on a selling-day adjusted basis, the decline in September sales was expected and reflects a quirk in how the industry reports sales," Thomas King, Senior Vice President of the Data and Analytics Division at J.D. Power, said in a press release. "The large decline in sales this month is driven primarily by the timing of the Labor Day holiday. Unlike most years, sales from the Labor Day holiday weekend were included in August sales reporting instead of September. With close to 250,000 new vehicles sold during the holiday weekend, the exclusion from September reporting is significant."
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
|September 20191||August 2019||September 2018|
|New-Vehicle Retail Sales||1,007,000 units|
(-7.8 percent lower than September 2018)2
|1,411,247 units||1,186,985 units|
|Total Vehicle Sales||1,244,000 units|
(-5.8 percent lower than September 2018)2
|1,642,485 units||1,434,916 units|
|Retail SAAR||13.9 million units||13.7 million units||14.5 million units|
|Total SAAR||16.8 million units||17.0 million units||17.3 million units|
|1Figures cited for September 2019 are forecast based on the first 16 selling days of the month.|
2September 2019 has 23 selling days, two days fewer than September 2018.