J.D. Power, LMC project drop in September car sales

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive project that new-vehicle retail sales in September dropped by about 15.2 percent compared to the same month last year as retail sales are estimated to reach only 1,007,000 units. 

Subsequently, new-vehicle retail sales in the third quarter are estimated to be at 3,622,500, flat compared to the same quarter in 2018. Moreover, total sales for September 2019 are expected to be 13.3 percent lower compared to September 2018. With the decrease, the expected total sales is translated to reach 1,244,000 units.

The forecast for new-vehicle total sales in Q3 is expected to reach 4,280,000 units, flat compared with Q3 2018.

"After delivering record sales results in August, when retail sales rose 6.2 percent on a selling-day adjusted basis, the decline in September sales was expected and reflects a quirk in how the industry reports sales," Thomas King, Senior Vice President of the Data and Analytics Division at J.D. Power, said in a press release. "The large decline in sales this month is driven primarily by the timing of the Labor Day holiday. Unlike most years, sales from the Labor Day holiday weekend were included in August sales reporting instead of September. With close to 250,000 new vehicles sold during the holiday weekend, the exclusion from September reporting is significant."

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons


September 20191
August 2019
September 2018
New-Vehicle Retail Sales
1,007,000 units
(-7.8 percent lower than September 2018)2
1,411,247 units
1,186,985 units
Total Vehicle Sales
1,244,000 units
(-5.8 percent lower than September 2018)2
1,642,485 units
1,434,916 units
Retail SAAR
13.9 million units
13.7 million units
14.5 million units
Total SAAR
16.8 million units
17.0 million units
17.3 million units
1Figures cited for September 2019 are forecast based on the first 16 selling days of the month.
2September 2019 has 23 selling days, two days fewer than September 2018.


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J.D. Power and Associates, Inc. 3200 Park Center Drive Costa Mesa, California 92626