Cox Automotive projected U.S. new-vehicle sales volume in August to have finished at 1.59 million, a 6.5% increase from last year, or an improved sales of almost 100,000 units.
On the other hand, it expects the seasonally adjusted annual rate to fall to 16.5 million, which is lower than July's 16.8 million level, and a drop from the same month the previous year (16.9 million).
Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist with Cox Automotive, noted that there might be a trend that is emerging.
"Unfortunately, the third time is not a charm here," Chesbrough said. "Compared to May 2019, which had the highest SAAR this year, August is forecast to be the third month in a row with a slowing sales pace. The market may finally be succumbing to toughening buying conditions and satiated vehicle demand."
The additional sales days in August this year are contributing to the low SAAR forecast.
August 2019 Forecast
| Sales Forecast1 | Market Share | ||||||||
| Aug-19 | Aug-18 | Jul-19 | YOY% | MOM% | Aug-19 | Jul-19 | MOM | ||
| GM | 275,000 | 239,757 | 235,000* | 14.7% | 16.9% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 0.5% | |
| Ford Motor Co | 205,000 | 217,700 | 193,000* | -5.8% | 6.4% | 12.9% | 13.8% | -0.9% | |
| Toyota Motor Co | 235,000 | 223,055 | 209,204 | 5.4% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 15.0% | -0.2% | |
| FCA Group | 205,000 | 193,718 | 172,000* | 5.8% | 19.3% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 0.6% | |
| American Honda | 160,000 | 147,903 | 141,296 | 8.2% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | -0.1% | |
| Nissan NA | 120,000 | 112,376 | 98,880 | 6.8% | 21.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 0.5% | |
| Hyundai Kia | 125,000 | 111,406 | 112,331 | 12.2% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | -0.2% | |
| VW | 62,000 | 57,245 | 55,514 | 8.3% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | -0.1% | |
| Subaru | 70,000 | 64,088 | 64,106 | 9.2% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | -0.2% | |
| Grand Total2 | 1,592,000 | 1,495,054 | 1,398,713 | 6.5% | 13.8% | ||||
| 1 August 2019 Cox Automotive Industry Insights Forecast; all historical data from OEM sales announcements * GM, Ford, FCA monthly sales are estimated | ||||||||||
| 2 Total includes brands not shown | ||||||||||
Sales Forecast1 | Market Share | |||||||||
| Segment | Aug-19 | Aug-18 | Jul-19 | YOY% | MOM% | Aug-19 | Jul-19 | MOM | ||
| Mid-Size Car | 125,000 | 121,972 | 104,155 | 2.5% | 20.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 0.4% | ||
| Compact Car | 150,000 | 143,524 | 129,488 | 4.5% | 15.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 0.2% | ||
| Compact SUV/Crossover | 290,000 | 277,072 | 254,539 | 4.7% | 13.9% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | ||
| Full-Size Pickup Truck | 230,000 | 207,088 | 202,813 | 11.1% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 14.5% | -0.1% | ||
| Mid-Size SUV/Crossover | 250,000 | 227,598 | 225,205 | 9.8% | 11.0% | 15.7% | 16.1% | -0.4% | ||
| Grand Total2 | 1,592,000 | 1,495,054 | 1,398,713 | 6.5% | 13.8% | |||||
| 1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
| 2 Total includes segments not shown |
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