Edmunds expects increase of new vehicle sales for January 2019

Edmunds' analysis predicts an increase in seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million for sales in the first month of 2019. That translates into more than 1.16 million new cars and trucks, which is 1.3 percent higher than in January 2018.

"January's sales strength shows car shoppers are still feeling optimistic, even in the midst of the government shutdown and talk of a slowing economy," Jeremy Acevedo, industry analysis manager of Edmunds, said.

The retail SAAR estimated for January is predicted at 13.9 million vehicles, with 19.7 percent of the total sales coming from fleet transactions. About 3.1 million sales for used vehicles is expected for the first month of the year, which can result in a SAAR at 39.2 million.

"But despite this positive start, January is such a slow sales month that it doesn't carry much weight when it comes to predicting the health of the auto market for the full year," Acevedo said.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales
Volume
January
2019 Forecast
January
2018
December
2018
Change from
January 2018
Change from
December 2018
GM*
193,348
198,548
293,680
-2.6%
-34.2%
Ford
178,904
160,411
219,632
11.5%
-18.5%
Toyota
162,960
167,052
220,908
-2.4%
-26.2%
Fiat Chrysler
136,690
132,803
196,520
2.9%
-30.4%
Honda
111,135
104,542
155,115
6.3%
-28.4%
Nissan
104,737
123,538
148,720
-15.2%
-29.6%
Hyundai/Kia
82,203
76,870
113,149
6.9%
-27.4%
VW/Audi
36,132
39,255
54,812
-8.0%
-34.1%
Tesla
17,167
-
-
-
-
Industry
1,169,804
1,155,313
1,627,597
1.3%
-28.1%

*GM sales totals for December 2018 are estimated

**NOTE: January 2019 had 25 selling days; January 2018 had 25 and December 2018 had 26.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share
January
2019 Forecast
January
2018
December
2018
Change from
January 2018
Change from
December 2018
GM
16.5%
17.2%
18.0%
-0.7%
-1.5%
Ford
15.3%
13.9%
13.5%
1.4%
1.8%
Toyota
13.9%
14.5%
13.6%
-0.5%
0.4%
Fiat Chrysler
11.7%
11.5%
12.1%
0.2%
-0.4%
Honda
9.5%
9.0%
9.5%
0.5%
0.0%
Nissan
9.0%
10.7%
9.1%
-1.7%
-0.2%
Hyundai/Kia
7.0%
6.7%
7.0%
0.4%
0.1%
VW/Audi
3.1%
3.4%
3.4%
-0.3%
-0.3%
Tesla
1.5%
-
-
-
-
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Edmunds