Edmunds' analysis predicts an increase in seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million for sales in the first month of 2019. That translates into more than 1.16 million new cars and trucks, which is 1.3 percent higher than in January 2018.
"January's sales strength shows car shoppers are still feeling optimistic, even in the midst of the government shutdown and talk of a slowing economy," Jeremy Acevedo, industry analysis manager of Edmunds, said.
The retail SAAR estimated for January is predicted at 13.9 million vehicles, with 19.7 percent of the total sales coming from fleet transactions. About 3.1 million sales for used vehicles is expected for the first month of the year, which can result in a SAAR at 39.2 million.
"But despite this positive start, January is such a slow sales month that it doesn't carry much weight when it comes to predicting the health of the auto market for the full year," Acevedo said.
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Sales Volume | January 2019 Forecast | January 2018 | December 2018 | Change from January 2018 | Change from December 2018 |
| GM* | 193,348 | 198,548 | 293,680 | -2.6% | -34.2% |
| Ford | 178,904 | 160,411 | 219,632 | 11.5% | -18.5% |
| Toyota | 162,960 | 167,052 | 220,908 | -2.4% | -26.2% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 136,690 | 132,803 | 196,520 | 2.9% | -30.4% |
| Honda | 111,135 | 104,542 | 155,115 | 6.3% | -28.4% |
| Nissan | 104,737 | 123,538 | 148,720 | -15.2% | -29.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 82,203 | 76,870 | 113,149 | 6.9% | -27.4% |
| VW/Audi | 36,132 | 39,255 | 54,812 | -8.0% | -34.1% |
| Tesla | 17,167 | - | - | - | - |
| Industry | 1,169,804 | 1,155,313 | 1,627,597 | 1.3% | -28.1% |
*GM sales totals for December 2018 are estimated
**NOTE: January 2019 had 25 selling days; January 2018 had 25 and December 2018 had 26.
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | January 2019 Forecast | January 2018 | December 2018 | Change from January 2018 | Change from December 2018 |
| GM | 16.5% | 17.2% | 18.0% | -0.7% | -1.5% |
| Ford | 15.3% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| Toyota | 13.9% | 14.5% | 13.6% | -0.5% | 0.4% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 11.7% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| Honda | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nissan | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | -1.7% | -0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| VW/Audi | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Tesla | 1.5% | - | - | - | - |
Alerts Sign-up